The Prediction Addiction – GIA vs G2

Friday – Giants vs G2 Esports

Today I will be looking at the Giants vs G2 Esports match-up, specifically focusing on the midlane, where we will see NighT face off against against Perkz.

NighT

First some context for his team, Giants come in off a hard fought 2-1 victory over Roccat with NighT going 8/2/18 and playing 3 unique champions in Ryze, Orianna and Taliyah.

night-stats-from-w2-g2

NightT currently sits at a respectable +28 gold difference @10minutes and averaging 0.2cs above his opponents. Whilst not the hallmarks of a monster laner, it at least shows he can go even against the likes of PoE, Caps and Betsy.

However whilst his early laning is serviceable, a look at his overall team contribution amongst midlaners highlights some clear flaws, sitting at a mediocre 56.1% kill participation he ranks join bottom 2, and although he also has the lowest share of his teams deaths it rather implies that NighT needs to step up his overall contribution and presence during Giants games. Now admittedly NighT also receives one of the lowest gold shares at 22.6% which might explain his particularly poor damage per minute and overall damage contribution which both rank in the bottom 2 of all EU midlaners.

night-stat-comparison

However as Giants only has an overall win rate of 1-3 (33.3%), it’s understandable that NighT doesn’t put up the greatest numbers, and so I thought a comparison of how NighT performs when Giants win vs when they lose.

Giants win vs Roccat – W2 G3

NighT finished this game with a perfect score of 5/0/5 on Ryze. During this game he dealt 21.7k damage to champions over the course of the 40:46 minute game, which translates to 22.5% of his teams total damage and 542.5 damage per minute. The lack of increase in % of teams total damage can be explained by the team composition that Giants ran that game, featured a high damage support and jungler.

night-win-vs-loss-dmg-comparison

However the sharp rise in damage per minute, a whooping 155.5 more than his current average, can be explained by taking a closer look at his income during that game. During the game against Roccat, NighT earned 17.6k gold or 22.1% of his teams gold. This doesn’t make sense right? How can NighT earn even less gold and still put out even more DPM? In order to understand this further an eye test of the actual game must be done to determine at which points NighT was strong, and whether he was generating his own gold lead or simply doing well because his team is winning.

During the early game we see NighT pick up an extra kill, however this doesn’t equate to any extra advantage in lane as he opts to save his extra gold for the first back. However it is important to note that Giants ADC HeaQ is able to purchase an extra longsword for lane, as he secured the kill onto the support.

giants-vs-roccat-w2-g3-early-advantage

Then at the 4:30 minute mark we see NighT push in the midlane and join Memento in his roam toplane following a TP from Phaxi back to lane.

night-roams-top

NighT and Memento converge toplane, despite Maxlore sensing them with Rek’Sai, at a guess I would presume that he was focused on setting up the gank onto Flaxxish.

night-and-memento-converge-toplane

This gank results in NighT netting himself a kill, putting him at 1/0/1 by the 5 minute mark.

night-first-kill

From this point NighT can accelerate his build as he his able to back and purchase his tear, allowing him to stack it earlier than normal. The earlier longsword purchse from HeaQ allows him to have the botlane shoved 24/7, freeing up Hustlin to invade the bottom side jungle which in turn delays Maxlore allowing for NighT to safely push the wave into the turret. This chain of events has the knock-on effect of allowing Memento to clear the red side bottom jungle and keep tabs on Maxlore, letting NighT safely play aggressive in lane. The next kill for NighT comes from following Betsy’s roam toplane and catching him out after a failed flash.

From here the game devolves somewhat into a bit of a fiesta, but the overall point shows that while NighT did not develop his own gold lead through his dominant laning, he instead made intelligent roams alongside his jungler after being able to push his lane in. We then see that once he survived the laning phase he was able to facilitate his team in pushing their victory conditions, kiting around teamfights and generally maintaining his lead.

The big problem I see with NighT during this example, is that he simply maintains his lead, rather than extending it. The flip-side of this suggests that if he doesn’t have a lead, he won’t create one either. Overall I think this makes him a very team-reliant player, he won’t necessarily be a super-star carry, but he won’t lose you the game either. In order to find out whether this will impact the Giants vs G2 series, we must examine his opponent in the midlane, Perkz.

Perkz

G2 currently sit with a series record of 3-0, and an overall game record of 6-2. Having come off a 2-1 victory against Misfits in which Perkz went an overall 9/2/15 playing 3 unique champions in Corki, Ryze and Cassiopeia.

Perkz stats from W2 vs Misfits.jpg

In terms of his performance against other EU midlaners, Perkz leaves the midlane with a whopping -134 gold difference and -90xp @10 minutes, although he averages +2cs over his opponent in the same time frame. This points to a fairly weak early game from Perkz, however once he gets past those first 10 minutes Perkz is able to really turn things online.

perkz-15-minutes

Post 15 minutes we see that Perkz is actually a major recipient of his teams gold receiving 27.9% of the cs, pushing his overall cs per minute to the top of all midlaners at 9.1. However Perkz definitely repays the resources that are invested into him, ranking second in overall DPM at 577 and third in team damage at 28.7%.

With these numbers we can draw up a rough picture of an expected performance from Perkz throughout the game:

0-15 minutes

Relatively weak laning phase, down in gold and xp on average with a minor cs lead. A point to note is Perkz high first blood rate, which stem from him either shoving in a wave and roaming toplane, or from Trick ganking mid. This means that whilst Perkz doesn’t solo kill his lane, he does find other ways to impact the map in the early game where possible.

15-25 minutes

Here is where we see Perkz having resources invested into him, and he repays this with an average of 82.9% kill participation by the 25 minute mark. It is this stage of the game where we really see Perkz begin to power up, transitioning his gold lead into grouping and having a high impact in teamfights.

 

Comparison of Perkz and NighT

Perkz and NighT comparison.jpg

The graph above really highlights the importance of the early game, NighT currently leaves lane with a slight advantage, whilst Perkz leaves with a substantial disadvantage. However our previous examination of NighT shows that he doesn’t tend to generate his own leads or punish poor laning, which is ideal for Perkz who is looking to ramp up into the mid-game where he heavily outperforms NighT in terms of damage output and kill participation.

Prediction

NighT really needs to transition his lane into an advantage for himself, he cannot enter the mid-game having only gone even with Perkz. If NighT can call for jungle assistance, Perkz having shown he likes to push up his lane and roam, then he may be able to net an early gold lead not just for himself, but Memento who has shown he can put on carry performances. If NighT is unable to step up and abuse the poor early game, then I see Perkz having a much bigger impact mid-late game with better roaming and teamfight positioning.

I predict the overall series to go to G2 Esports 2-0 based on that midlane match-up.

All stats are taken from Oracleselixer.com.

 

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The Prediction Addiction – SPY vs UOL

Thursday – Splyce vs Unicorns of Love.

Today I will be looking at the Splyce vs Unicorns of Love match-up, specifically focusing on the top half of the map where we will see Wunder/Trashy play off against Vizicsacsi/Xerxe. Both of these teams come in with some serious momentum, Splyce having previously bulldozed their way through a rather apathetic Vitality, winning both of their previous games last week and UOL coming in with a 3-0 winstreak.

Toplane:

During Splyce’s last series, it was Wunder that really impressed me, going a combined 6/0/12 over the 2 games, and  ranking 2nd and 1st in damage dealt respectively, whilst playing Shen and Nautilus.

wunder-damage

Wunder also has a 68.3% kill participation over the 2 weeks which places him 3rd amongst EU toplaners, although it should be noted that he has only played 4 games, which may account for a slightly inflated score. The real test for Wunder this week will be whether he can withstand the pressure from Vizicsacsi who ranks 3rd in cs differential at 10 minutes, and also tops the charts in terms of kill participation.

wunder-vs-vizi-comparison

The graph above really highlights the difference in laning between the two, whilst we are still early in the split, we can already see Vizicsacsi outperforming Wunder in the first 10 minutes of the game. Generating a significant gold lead and outfarming his lane opponent.

During the top lane match-up I would expect Shen to be the most contested pick, potentially seeing it either banned by Splyce, or left open in order for Wunder to counter-pick. Whilst I don’t expect to see Wunder return to the Kled pick, Renekton has been making a resurgence, being played in the LCK by Marin, and so it will be interesting to see whether he opts into a more lane dominant champion to try and pressure out Vizicsacsi.

Jungle:

One of the key areas that I expect Splyce to exploit will be the jungle match-up, as a closer look indicates that Xerxe’s early game could potentially be exploited.

trashy-vs-xerxe-comparison

The graph above highlights the difference in early game between the two junglers, with Trashy generating more gold and xp in the early game, whilst Xerxe has the lowest gold difference at 10 minutes amongst all junglers. This match-up will really test whether Trashy can convert his early game leads into snowballing his lanes and taking objective control. I also expect Splyce to prioritise Rengar, having picked him in both their games against Vitality last week, and to take away the Ivern pick that Xerxe has been having success with.

However if Trashy is unable to convert this early advantage, Xerxe has the lowest death count for junglers and ranks 3rd in kill participation, showing that he is able to facilitate the mid-late game teamfighting that the Unicorns are currently known for.

xerxe

Prediction

Looking at the top lane match-up, I have to give the advantage to Vizicsacsi who has been looking on top form during lane, TP plays across map and late game teamfighting. Whilst I think Wunder will perform during teamfights, the difficult laning phase for him means that he will be at a deficit from quite an early stage. However if Splyce are going to take a game from the Unicorns it will be in part due to Wunder being able to match Vizicsacsi in lane, and keeping up with him in mid-late game relevance.

The jungle match-up I predict the early game to be in the favour of Trashy, with a big question mark as to how he can convert the lead he generates. If he can convert his own lead into a team advantage and snowball from there, we have seen Splyce being able to close out with a lead. If Trashy falls behind or doesn’t convert his lead, then I think the superior teamfighting from Xerxe and UOL as a whole will simply bleed out Splyce during the mid-late game.

Whilst I think Splyce may be able to take a game if Trashy performs, and their lanes hold out, I just don’t think that they can generate a lead consistently enough to challenge the superb teamfighting and rotations coming out of UOL early in this split. Based on that, I predict UOL to take the series 2-1.

All stats are taken from Oracleselixer.com.